Comments on: Croydon and the referendum: how we voted

By: baldfeller

baldfeller — Wed, 28 Feb 2018 08:10:00 +0000

Or better educated people don’t end up doing jobs that shorten life expectancy, so more actually make it to old age. Apologies for replying a year late.

By: KeepRightcroydOn

KeepRightcroydOn — Sun, 16 Jul 2017 19:45:00 +0000

Thanks for the figures. If replicated nationally it would imply that a significant minority who voted Leave, do not generally vote in GEs. Enough to give Leave that tiny majority.

Such a shame that these people, who presumably feel dienfranchised and hence don’t generally exercise their democratic right to vote, did so last year in the misconception that the EU is to blame for their word. Farage and Ukip did a good job in selling lies to these people.

By: Michael Swadling

Michael Swadling — Sun, 16 Jul 2017 17:29:00 +0000

Thanks Robert. This means turn out on the day was 6% higher across New Addington compared to 3.6% higher total turnout (postal and polling station) across the constituency as a whole.

Suggests to me quite likely there was some bump from people who voted for the first time or first time for years in the referendum and voted again in the General Election.

By: Robert Ward

Robert Ward — Sun, 16 Jul 2017 15:58:00 +0000

Voting on the day at GE2015 was 6,730.

By: Michael Swadling

Michael Swadling — Sun, 16 Jul 2017 11:46:00 +0000

It looks like the number of people voting on the day in the referendum in the two wards in New Addington was 10,361. For GE2017 this was 7190.

The interesting number to have (which I can’t find) is the the number of voters on the day in 2015 to see if 2017 was a big change,.

By: Robert Ward

Robert Ward — Sat, 15 Jul 2017 20:58:00 +0000

Hard to say exactly because postal votes are all lumped together. However, making an estimate suggests the turnout in those two wards was well up on GE2015, but not as high as for the referendum.

By: KeepRightcroydOn

KeepRightcroydOn — Sat, 15 Jul 2017 19:41:00 +0000

Any idea what the turnout in New Addington and Fieldway was in GE2017?
I wonder if those disillusioned people who rarely vote, but decided to vote Leave, came out once more in 2017.

By: Robert Ward

Robert Ward — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 10:42:00 +0000

Apologies to people reading the article but somehow I put the wrong number in for the Leave/Remain margin for Croydon Central. As Michael Swadling has already pointed out below the correct number is 50.3%/49.7% in favour of Leave. Once again my sincere apologies for this mistake.

By: Robert Ward

Robert Ward — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 10:05:00 +0000

Thanks Michael. I take your point that age and education level are to some extent proxies of one another.

I was surprised at the statistics on the level of higher education of people now in their seventies and eighties. These show in our area as being much higher than I had expected given that the chance of a working class child going to university at that time was tiny. My guess is that over time London job opportunities attracted degree level people from across the country and indeed from abroad which has pushed the number up.

By: Robert Ward

Robert Ward — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 09:58:00 +0000

Thanks Peter, I had not realised the ward level data had been available from Croydon Council for a while. The extra work done by the bbc reporter was mainly slogging through the 2011 Census data to get the age, education, ethnicity data for each ward and then doing the analysis which previously had only been done at a much cruder level.