Election 2015 Liveblog


By - Thursday 7th May, 2015

As the moment of truth looms, Tom Black is up all night with live results, commentary and analysis from Croydon and across the UK


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06.27

RESULT – Croydon Central

The Advertiser is reporting that Gavin Barwell has held Croydon Central for the Conservative Party. It is believed he has won by 165 votes.

With all three seats now declared or on the verge of doing so, the liveblog comes to an end. Britain has a new government, its first majority Conservative administration since 1992. Two of Croydon’s three MPs will sit in the House of Commons as part of it.

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06.03

Labour have asked for a full recount in Croydon Central, which suggests they are behind. The request has been refused, but a bundle recount of the runners up is underway.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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05.47

Chris Philp has won Croydon South for the Conservatives.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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05.45

Gavin Barwell’s team are finally prepared to say they think they’ve won Croydon Central.

Croydon South is declaring shortly. Chris Philp will have won.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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04.50

RESULT – Croydon North

Lee Berks, Independent – 141
Joanna Corbin, Liberal Democrats – 1,919
Glen Hart, TUSC –  261
Shasha Khan, Greens – 2,515
Winston McKenzie, UKIP – 2,899
Vidhi Mohan, Conservatives – 12,149
Steve Reed, Labour – 33,500 (or so)
Ben Stevenson, Communist - 535 

WINNER: Steve Reed (Labour)

No surprises there.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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04.27

Croydon Central has gone to a recount. Sarah Jones and Gavin Barwell are the only two candidates’ whose ballots are being recounted.

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04.20

Bundle recount in Croydon Central. It’s going to be close.

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03.52

Ilford North, a Conservative seat in London that Labour have been targeting to a similar level to Croydon Central, has fallen to Labour’s Wes Streeting. That’s got to be encouraging news for Sarah Jones in Croydon Central.

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03.50

Another morsel via Gareth Davies:

Some suggestion that it looked bad for Labour before votes from New Addington and Addiscombe turned up #croydondecides

I did say some nights ago on my radio show that the longer this count takes, the less likely the ‘obvious’ winner is to prevail. With the odds now favouring Barwell, and tweets like the above floating around, it could be that Jones squeaks home.

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03.37

So, will it be Jones or Barwell?

In spite of the national picture looking increasingly grim for Labour, it’s still close in Croydon Central. Labour results in Ealing have shown that they can make gains from the Conservatives in London, even on a night that looks set to put them on fewer seats than they got at the last election. We’re not in recount territory yet, apparently, but the count itself is taking some time.

No word on Croydon South or Croydon North yet, either.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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03.00

We’re at 3am, when the Croydon results are due, but no sign of them.

However, in spite of the national picture, Croydon Central is still looking close – nobody is talking up Labour’s chances but nobody is prepared to say Gavin Barwell has held on, either.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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02.50

Some turnout figures are coming out. Croydon South is 70.54%. It was 69.48% in 2010.

Regarding Croydon Central, nobody seems to be arguing that Labour are going to win it anymore.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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01.59

With the latest batch of results, the BBC exit poll is looking vindicated – and then some. The BBC have just pointed out that the swing in Nuneaton suggests there is now a serious chance of a Conservative majority.

In Croydon Central, the Conservatives remain tight-lipped about their chances, refusing to show anything but caution, but Sarah Jones’ chances are looking poorer by the minute.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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01.26

A comparable seat: Battersea, which had a larger Tory majority but Labour still threw a lot at the seat. The Conservatives have held it, with a slightly increased majority.

Counting has now formally begun in Croydon Central.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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00.54

Gareth Davies, who you should be following on Twitter anyway, has been landing a few scoops – the latest is that Croydon Labour figures have begun privately admitting they aren’t going to win in Croydon Central. The Conservatives are not so sure, or at least they’re being cautious.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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00.28

A bit of local news: the nearby seat of Carshalton and Wallington is projected to go to the Tories, who would take it from Lib Dem Tom Brake. Again, that’s the BBC exit poll that sees the Lib Dems on 10 seats total.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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00.23

So what does the national picture mean for Croydon’s seats? Well, leaving aside the nailed-on certainties of a Labour win in Croydon North and a Conservative win in Croydon South, there’s not much to really say with certainty about Croydon Central.

The dispute over whether the exit poll is accurate – and whether you believe it is or not is probably down to what you want to be true – means this crucial bellwether is very hard to call based on the current predictions. When we have more seats to go on we can start projecting a bit more clearly.

In the meantime, it bears repeating that the only media outlet to make a call on Croydon Central has been the BBC – and they have painted it blue.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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23.50

The BBC has named some seats that they’re forecasting. Among the Conservative holds, the first one Jeremy Vine said out loud was Croydon Central – it does look like if the BBC/Ipsos-MORI poll is right, Gavin Barwell will remain in office.

Nothing is yet clear on the ground at the count, candidates and activists alike are doing little more than shrug and admit they don’t know what’s going to happen.

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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22.28

YouGov have released their own exit poll, much more in line with polling in the run-up to the election:

CON 284
LAB 263
SNP 48
LIB 31
UKIP 2
GRN 1 

If this poll turns out to be right, then Croydon Central is a knife-edge again.

The Croydon Citizen

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The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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22.15

The BBC exit poll is out:

CON 316
LAB 239
SNP 58
LIB 10
UKIP 2
GRN 2

A huge surprise given the polls, and it may yet be wrong – but 22,000 people were sampled.

If this is correct, there is little doubt that Gavin Barwell will hold Croydon Central.

The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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21.29

Good evening, and welcome to the Croydon Citizen‘s liveblog of the 2015 general election.

I’m Tom Black, and like last year, I’ll be giving you morsels of fresh and tasty data, gossip and speculation all night – along with those crucial three results in Croydon North, Croydon Central and Croydon South.

We currently expect Croydon results to start coming in at about 3am, though the knife-edge Croydon Central may take a while longer.

The Croydon Advertiser are running a liveblog too, so keep an eye on that as well for a truly stereo experience.

When the polls close in half an hour, we should get the BBC exit poll almost immediately. I’ll post an immediate reaction, taking into account what the projected results mean for Croydon’s seats – I’m afraid I cannot promise a swingometer.

For now, make yourself comfortable – it’s going to be a long night.

The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen

The Croydon Citizen is a non-profit community news magazine for London's most populous borough.

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  • Anne Giles

    We need to turn our lights out at 11 p.m., so will get the results when our alarm goes off at 7 a.m.!